Day Trade Stocks Successfully Using Odds Based Position Sizing

Position Sizing is the process of determining howhistorically lost money 60% of the time whenever a
many shares of stock that you should trade in ordercertain condition existed, you should classify the
to risk a certain dollar amount or percentage of yourcondition as a risk factor for the trade. Some
account. You must consider the size of your exitexamples of questions you should ask to determine
stop and the amount of money you are willing to riskrisk-factors for day trades are:
when making this calculation. For example, if you are1. Does the trade have enough time to reach its
day trading a $50 stock, and you place your exitprofit objective before the market closes?
stop 50 cents from your entry price and you do not2. Are you trading in the same direction as the
want to risk more than $100 on a particular trade,stock's intermediate or short-term trend?
you would have to purchase exactly 196 shares in3. Are the market indices (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) going
order to avoid losing more than $100 if your exitin the same direction as the trade?
stop is triggered.Answering "No" to any of the above questions may
After you have performed enough position sizecreate a risk-factor depending on your analysis of
calculations, you will quickly see that the ability topast trades. However, the above considerations are
vary your position size with stocks gives you aonly a small sample of potential risk factors that could
tremendous tactical advantage because no matteraffect a trade when day trading. You should perform
how large your stop, you will almost always be ablea thorough review of past trades to identify
to adjust the number of shares to an amount thatadditional risk factors with respect to your trade
will fit your desired level of risk. In other words, yousetups.
can maintain the same amount of money at risk,Once you have developed your list of risk factors,
regardless of whether your stop is 50 cents or 5odds-based position sizing entails decreasing your
dollars from your entry price, by simply adjusting theposition size a predetermined percentage whenever a
number of stock shares. This flexibility allows you torisk factor exists. For example, you may decide to
take day trades using various strategies and chartreduce your position size by 10% for each risk factor
time-frames without enabling the size of your stop tothat exists in order to carry a smaller position when
dictate whether or not you can take the trade.the odds are not entirely in your favor. Therefore, if
What is odds-based position sizing and why is itthree risk factors exist, you would reduce your
important? Odds-based position sizing means varyingintended position by 30%. The result of this process
the amount of risk (i.e., money you are willing to lose)will be that you only carry your largest position size
for a particular trade if certain risk factors develop.on your highest probability trades and your smallest
This type of position sizing is important for dayposition size on your lowest probability trades.
traders because every trade should not be treatedA good way to begin this procedure is to develop
equally. Certain trades have a higher probability ofyour list of risk factors. Before you enter a trade,
success than others based on the risk factors thatcount the number of risk-factors that exist against
you have defined for your trade setups.your trade, and then reduce your position size
Risk factors are conditions that you have identifiedaccordingly. Over time, you will be able to quickly and
by reviewing past trades that tend to degrade theintuitively perform this process in your head.
quality of the trade. For instance, if a trade setup has